Minnesota Signs Bouchard

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 27, 2008 10:15 AM MDT

This news came out yesterday, but Minnesota has signed forward Pierre-Marc Bouchard to a five-year contract worth 20.4 million dollars (4.08M/yr). According to the Minnesota Star-Tribune, the first two years of that contract come with a verbal commitment from Doug Risebbrough that Bouchard will not be traded. James Mirtle describes the contract as "reasonable", and that's how it seems to me as well. He also points out that Minnesota is quite close to the salary cap, and have yet to sign Marian Gaborik, who is an unrestricted free agent next season. As he's already recieveing 6.3 million per season, I imagine they won't have too much trouble getting him to sign a relatively long-term contract with a modest pay increase.

Mostly from Behind the Net, here are a few things worth noting about Bouchard:
1) He doesn't have a history of playing against quality players. In 2006-07, he ranked 8th among regular Wild forwards in Quality of Competition and in 2007-08 ranked 10th.
2) In 2006-07, he was reasonably successful as a second-unit powerplay option, while this last season he improved considerably as he ranked second among the forward group in time on ice and recorded 4.79 PTS/60 on a very good powerplay.
3) It's worth noting that Bouchard had the best Corsi number on the team in 2007-08; his opposition didn't manage to generate much againt him, something that's reflected in his 1.82 GAON/60. Some of it is a reflection of playing in such a defensive system, but the other forwards were in the same system and most of them were outshot.
4) In 2006-07, Bouchard put up 1.93 PTS/60, and in 2007-08 he posted 2.05 PTS/60. It's a modest gain, one that will likely continue, and although that isn't a great number against relatively soft opposition, combined with his penchant for keeping the puck in the offensive zone it marks Bouchard as a very decent player.
5) With Mikko Koivu playing great against everybody, Bouchard has carved out a role as a player who thrives against lesser lights, and with that kind of shelter there's no reason to expect him to fall back anytime soon.

All of which is bad news for the Oilers, who will play Minnesota six times this coming season. I'd be very surprised if the Wild don't win the division.

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I'd be shocked if Minnesota made the playoffs, let alone won the division.

I think Gaborik's season this year will reflect Hossa's last year; he'll be unhappy at the offensive talent that has left, unhappy with the overall direction of the team, and have his eyes set on unrestricted free agency. I don't think this makes for an effective player, and that's trouble for Minnesota when he's their best player.

Minnesota's worse, Calgary's worse and Vancouver's improvements look like a lot of smoke and mirrors, even if they land Sundin. The only team that has clearly gotten better is Edmonton, and they have a young team to boot.

The one team to watch out for in the NW is Colorado; I think Sakic sticks around, and with fewer injuries, they are a better team. I also like Tucker as a depth addition.

by Paper Designer on Jul 27, 2008 11:28 AM MDT reply actions

Minnesota's worse, Calgary's worse and Vancouver's improvements look like a lot of smoke and mirrors, even if they land Sundin. The only team that has clearly gotten better is Edmonton, and they have a young team to boot.

The one team to watch out for in the NW is Colorado; I think Sakic sticks around, and with fewer injuries, they are a better team. I also like Tucker as a depth addition.

Calgary is certainly worse, as is Vancouver (barring Sundin joining the team). Colorado on the other hand now has easily the worst goaltending tandem in the league and have had some depth defections, one of which (Sauer) is actually pretty significant.

Minnesota, on the other hand, loses Demitra and Rolston, but somewhat compensate with the arrival of Brunette and some defensive forward types. Harding and Backstrom should both be better, and much like Edmonton there's a lot of youth on the upswing (Koivu, Burns, Sheppard, Pouliot). The "losses" of Sean Hill and Keith Carney aren't going to hurt either, given that both were basically third-pairing liabilites at this juncture in their careers (Hill anyway, Carney's just OK).

Minnesota won the division last year while Edmonton finished 4th, and none of the other teams have made up ground and I don't think Edmonton's made up enough.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 27, 2008 1:16 PM MDT reply actions

I'd say Minnesota is still the favorite but the Oilers are close. Brett Burns looked amazing at the Worlds. If he is that good, Minnesota is going to be good for a while. The Wild lost a lot of leadership in Rolston but are still the favorite IMO.

by Sean on Jul 27, 2008 2:05 PM MDT reply actions

The Oilers are that much better because they are making up ground in three separate ways:

1) They've got a better line-up. The addition of Visnovsky and Cole are better than Stoll, Torres, Greene and Pitkanen. At the very least, they're improvements over what those players were last year, and probably plain better to boot. They also toss in Brule, who might be an effective player.

2) Their core is young and improving. Between Hemsky, Gagner, Penner, Cogliano, Nilsson, Brodziak, Gilbert, Grebeshkov and Smid, most of this team consists of players who are likely going to get better. Maybe some take a step back, but they'll be in the minority. Even if the three kids tread water from where they were in the final twenty games for a full year, that's a major, major upgrade. Maybe a few prospects step up and help too.

3) Healthy players. Shawn Horcoff is an incredibly important player, and having him for a full year is likely, and will help. Having a powerplay option like Souray available will be helpful. Maybe Moreau finally gets to play a full season, or near it, and he provides a lot of what this team lacks. A more reasonable number of man-game injuries is likely to happen, and that will help.

It's quite the upgrade. That, combined with the overall weakening of the NW, make them a frontrunner for the division.

I still like Colorado, largely because I think goaltending is the one position with the most unpredictable results. Who would have said that Calgary's goaltending would be a major weakpoint in 2007-2008? Or that Garon would be a legitimate #1 goalie making 1.1 million? Crazy things happen, and one of them could be a Colorado goaltending prospect coming out of nowhere, or Budaj or Raycroft coming through with a strong season.

by Paper Designer on Jul 27, 2008 8:15 PM MDT reply actions

It's quite the upgrade. That, combined with the overall weakening of the NW, make them a frontrunner for the division.

I just don't see Minnesota as that much weaker. Losing Rolston hurts, but Demitra leaving is nowhere near as big a deal as people seem to think it is. It was an off-year for Backstrom, and Harding is an improving youngster. Plus, they have a young core.

I still like Colorado, largely because I think goaltending is the one position with the most unpredictable results. Who would have said that Calgary's goaltending would be a major weakpoint in 2007-2008? Or that Garon would be a legitimate #1 goalie making 1.1 million? Crazy things happen, and one of them could be a Colorado goaltending prospect coming out of nowhere, or Budaj or Raycroft coming through with a strong season.

Crazy things happen, but not that crazy. Colorado's prospects are non-descript at best, with Tyler Weiman being the best one, and I kid you not when I say that Jeff Deslauriers would be an upgrade there. Andrew Raycroft's best SV% since the lockout is .894, and Peter Budaj has never topped .905. We aren't talking Conkkanen here; Conkkanen had two goaltenders coming off nice seasons, while Colorado has a goaltender who's never had a nice season and another one who hasn't had a decent year since his rookie campaign 5 years ago.

Maybe the dice come up double sixes, but the smart money, and the extremely likely outcome, is that the Avalanche pay more money for goal-light bulbs than any other team in the NW.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 27, 2008 9:58 PM MDT reply actions

re: PMB, that's a nice juxtaposition of stats, 2.05 ESP/60 and 1.82 GA ON/60. It's a mismatched metric, and it's no mean feat to be plus.

by Bruce on Jul 27, 2008 11:53 PM MDT reply actions

I find it interesting that Backstrom's .920 save percentage is considered an off year, while Garon puts up .913 and is considered a strong season.

The Wild are probably better than people think. Zidlicky's a good addition on the back end, and Demitra was awful last year.

by James Mirtle on Jul 28, 2008 12:02 AM MDT reply actions

I find it interesting that Backstrom's .920 save percentage is considered an off year, while Garon puts up .913 and is considered a strong season.

Well, not that big an off-year, to be fair, but Minnesota's goalies always put up super-inflated stats.

As for Garon, considering the defense he was playing behind, that number looks pretty good.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 28, 2008 7:41 AM MDT reply actions

I'm inclined to agree with the consensus that Minnesota hasn't gotten worse enough to lose the division title -- they're probably in about the same place, quality-wise -- nor has Edmonton improved enough to take it. I figure the Oilers should finish no worse than third in the division, and while they could conceivably win it, but I think that would be calling on a fair bit of Shit Happens, which you never want to rely on too much in preseason prediction.

by Doogie2K on Jul 28, 2008 10:47 AM MDT reply actions

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Northwest Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	53	33	15	5	71
Minnesota Hockey Wilderness	53	25	20	8	58
Colorado Mile High Hockey	55	27	25	3	57
Calgary Matchsticks and Gasoline	53	24	22	7	55
Edmonton The Copper & Blue	53	21	27	5	47

(updated 2.8.2012 at 7:10 AM MST)

21 - 27 - 5

Streak: Lost 1

Oilers Schedule

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@ Detroit Winging It In Motown	Wed 02/08	5:30 PM MST
@ Ottawa Silver Seven	Sat 02/11	12:00 PM MST
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Colorado Mile High Hockey	Fri 02/17	7:30 PM MST
Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Sun 02/19	7:00 PM MST

Last 5 Games

@ Toronto Pension Plan Puppets	Mon 02/06	L 3 - 6
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@ Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Tue 01/24	SO - L 2 - 3