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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Indefatigable


This guy is Admiral Edward Pellew, 1st Viscount Exmouth. He's an outstanding example of the kind of extraordinary men who formed the backbone of the Royal Navy during the days of the British Empire. He fought privateers off Newfoundland, captured Java from the Dutch, and in one incident, swam out from shore to the troop carrier Dutton, aground in heavy seas with a line, which resulted in the survival of almost the entire ship's company.

Before this, however, Pellew was commander of the frigate Indefatigable, stationed off Ushant. In 1795, a French invasion fleet with 17 ships of the line and fifteen thousand troops was dispatched to land in Ireland, then a hotbed of revolution, and to march inland, hoping to bring civil war on the island of England. The English blockade fleet, under Admiral Colpoys, was driven by bad weather into the Atlantic Ocean, and only Pellew's frigate remained, despite days of foul weather- the worst Pellew would ever experience during his illustrious career. Without time to alert Colpoys, Pellew devised a plan. Under cover of night, the Indefatigable would infiltrate the French fleet, firing off misleading signal flares and guns, causing disruption and possible ruin for the French.

It was a brilliant success. One battleship, the Seduisant ran aground, while the rest of the fleet was completely scattered. They eventually reassembled, but too late for a successful invasion. As they returned to port, Pellew picked out one damaged French vessel, and despite being rather heavily outgunned, managed to force it aground as well. At the time, Pellew was a promising but still untested officer. After this incident, where his ship single-handedly may have changed the course of world history, he was rapidly promoted and eventually became one of the finest officers that the world's greatest navy ever produced.

Where, you ask, are we going with this? I'll tell you: Matt Greene.



James Mirtle has a nice piece up today about the not-ready-for-primetime Los Angeles Kings. Here is his rendition of the teams depth chart on defense:

Jack Johnson - Matt Greene
Denis Gauthier - Tom Preissing
Peter Harrold - Drew Doughty

That is an ugly group. Looking at it, though, we can say a few things about Matt Greene:
a) He's being thrown into the fire.
b) By the end of the year, we'll know what he's made of.

Greene has shown promise. He plays physically. He sacrifices the body. Among Oilers regulars last season, he had the nicest GAON/60. Of course, he posted that in a prime position, with decent teammates and nobodies on the other end of the ice, and he still got outscored, but he was certainly a low-event, defensively reliable guy in that situation. And he's going to get a chance to be a legitimate, tough-opposition, shut-down defender, because:
a) Doughty is 18.
b) Harrold and Preissing can't do the job.
c) Denis Gauthier spent last season in the AHL, and prior to that got murdered by second-pairing opponents.

Still, while the smart money is on Greene being in way over his head and ending the year a scorched, empty hulk of a defenseman, he could surprise. He's young yet, he seems bright enough, and he certainly has some physical tools to work with. If he's going to break out, it'll be this year.

And it will take a legendary effort to be successful.

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Ever read or watch the Hornblower series? Post Captain (later Admiral) Pellew plays a central role in that. Much of it aboard the Indy, no less.

Additionally, that series marks one of the only other mainstream appearances of one Denis Lawson - the actor who played Wedge Antilles in the Star Wars saga.

Good stuff.

by Peter on Jul 11, 2008 1:10 AM MDT reply actions  

Ever read or watch the Hornblower series? Post Captain (later Admiral) Pellew plays a central role in that. Much of it aboard the Indy, no less.

Additionally, that series marks one of the only other mainstream appearances of one Denis Lawson - the actor who played Wedge Antilles in the Star Wars saga.


I have; I've read the books too. Pellew's role is much larger in the series, something that I rather enjoyed. Who does Lawson play?

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 11, 2008 6:14 AM MDT reply actions  

No Thomas Hickey on that blueline? Odd, I would have picked him over Doughty at this stage.

by doritogrande on Jul 11, 2008 9:18 AM MDT reply actions  

Very Lowetide-esque Jonathon:o)

by Oilman on Jul 11, 2008 9:31 AM MDT reply actions  

I thought you said, "Matt Greene can't play hockey." ;)

Here's the thing about QualComp, the main thing people appear to hold againt Greene.

1. It's not like Greene played against weak comp. all game, very game. Surely, on the road, where the Oil had to change first, other teams would send out their best players against Greene to take advantage of him, if he was so bad.
So at least 1/3 of the time, he must have been out there against tough guys.

2. QualComp is based on plus/minus stats. Desjardins says with the way these stats are kept, there's a 10 per cent margin of error, because he can't always be sure who is on the ice against whom.

3. Plus/minus also fingers people for goals against who had nothing to do with the goal against, and rewards people for goals they had nothing to do with being scored. I estimate this happens about 40 per cent of the time.

So QualComp is the best we got, it's somewhat useful, and it matched pretty much what I saw with my own eyes, which was that Greene often played against tough players, too, but generally did not.

But in any attack on a player, QualComp must be put into context.

P.S. If Greene is in he top two pairing, that surely is asking a lot. He's being thrown to the wolves. He will be OK, I suspect, but only if he's matched with the right type of partner, a guy who can really control the puck in his own zone with his stickhandling ability, such as Smid is able to do, Tarnstrom was able to do, but Bergeron was definitely not able to do.

by dstaples on Jul 11, 2008 9:32 AM MDT reply actions  

Greene is hilarious, I ran into him a few times on Whyte, always approachable and cracking jokes. When he was still limping last year I asked him how frustrated he was with the injury given how well he had played in the 10 or so games previous and he just shrugged it off and said he'd study some tape. It was funny to watch Penner, Stoll and Hemmer interact as well with the bar staff and such.. Oh to be a millionaire mid twenties hockey player in a crazed market.

I was sad to see both Stoll and Greene go, but I like the return.

by budorduke on Jul 11, 2008 10:01 AM MDT reply actions  

I think his part was called Dreadnaught Foster - a real hell-raiser of a captain. I seem to remember Foster and Hornblower ending up on a Spanish fireship together - in the tv series, that is.

by Peter on Jul 11, 2008 10:11 AM MDT reply actions  

Jon: If you have the time, here's an idea I'd like to see explored and you've been doing a lot of good work lately and I think you might be up for it.

Over at LT's site, someone brought up the idea of dealing away Nilsson for a dman that's strong at evens and then you could move Souray's pact off the books and slot Schremp into Nilsson's spot on the Kids Line.

So, see if you can spy out some teams that have a hard time drafting and developing offensive talent while also possessing a bevy of young D; one of whom has already played top four EV min and might be ready to take the next step.

And then we could have a possible scnario that could support such a move.

by Dennis on Jul 11, 2008 11:59 AM MDT reply actions  

Dennis:

You are the Metternich of the Oilogosphere when it comes to your machinations over Souray ;).

How -- exactly -- do you move Souray's pact off the books.

He can't be sent to the minors.

He can only be traded if he agrees.

If he agrees, can't the Oil just trade Souray without trading Nilsson?

And don't you believe in player development?

Based on their strong play against weak competition, don't both Smid and Grebeshkov merit a chance to play in top four pairing?

Is it really healthy to develop your young talent, then just as they are ready to step up, you trade for a vet to take their job? That sounds like poison in a dressing room.

by dstaples on Jul 11, 2008 12:09 PM MDT reply actions  

Matt Greene is going to get lit up next year, but so is everyone; Lombardi is building for a team 3+ years away and at the very least Greene's development will be expedited. I don't think the book on Greene will be finished when he ends up -20 next year.

by Traktor on Jul 11, 2008 12:52 PM MDT reply actions  

No Thomas Hickey on that blueline? Odd, I would have picked him over Doughty at this stage.

Presumabley Mirtle feels that Doughty fills a need more than Hickey.

I thought you said, "Matt Greene can't play hockey." ;)

More or less, and I stand by it ;) I just think that if Greene is going to evolve into a shutdown guy, we'll see a big step forward this season.

I think his part was called Dreadnaught Foster - a real hell-raiser of a captain.

Yes, I remember now, and I can actually see the similarity. I'm rather surprised I didn't notice.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 11, 2008 1:26 PM MDT reply actions  

Matt Greene is going to get lit up next year, but so is everyone; Lombardi is building for a team 3+ years away and at the very least Greene's development will be expedited. I don't think the book on Greene will be finished when he ends up -20 next year.

No, but I think if Greene is on the bottom pairing at the end of the season, we can safely conclude that he probably isn't going to develop into a top-notch shut-down defender.

Lombardi's team-building approach is really interesting, and I enjoy contrarian thinking (raze and rebuild in the "quick rebuild" era). I think Lombardi's a first-rate jackass, but he's going to build a winner.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 11, 2008 1:28 PM MDT reply actions  

Got to say, I agree with Traktor. They are all going to bleed big time in Los Angeles this year, then draft Tavares or that big Swedish kid.

So Greene's plus/minus will be horrid, but do I still think he can be as good as Jason Smith was?

For sure.

I wonder if L.A. traded Cammalleri (sp?) so they could get in the Tavares sweepstakes? No pressing need to trade the guy, was there?

by dstaples on Jul 11, 2008 1:29 PM MDT reply actions  

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