Forwards: Regulars & In The Mix

One of the nicer features on the Edmonton Oilers website is the Depth Chart. It gives us a decent idea of where players sit during the off-season, and what kind of role is being envisioned for them. It also gives us a nice starting point for determining who has an NHL job already, and who needs to earn one in camp. Here is my list of players who are locks to make the team:
Left Wing: Erik Cole, Dustin Penner, Robert Nilsson, Ethan Moreau
Centre: Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner, Kyle Brodziak
Right Wing: Ales Hemsky, Fernando Pisani, Andrew Cogliano, Zack Stortini
That's eleven forwards, out of a maximum of fourteen spots. What is of interest to most of us, though, are the guys who aren't sure things. Here they are, in order of their probability of making the team this year, and their highest possible starting role.
Marc Pouliot
Pouliot has been the darling of the Oilogosphere almost since being drafted in the first round of 2003. Lowetide has led the charge, and it's easy to see why- Pouliot is a complete player, at least in junior and as a minor-league professional, a superior passer with decent size, skating ability, and all-round offensive skills. He also has had the reputation of being a responsible defensive player, the kind of player who typically can land in any role in the NHL and then work his way up the depth charts. Just turned 23, and with two previous partial seasons at the NHL-level, Pouliot is all but assured to be with the Oilers as a top-12 forward. Particularly important is his contract status, waiver eligibility, and his faceoff ability.
The only thing standing in Pouliot's way is himself. He was expected to make the team two years ago, and had a disappointing training camp. Recalled part way through the season, he excelled to close off the year, and was certainly envisioned as an ingredient in the 2007-08 team. After yet another poor training camp, he made the team, went pointless with an ugly plus-minus, and spent the majority of the season in the minor leagues. He looked good after his recall this past season, but another poor training camp, combined with strong performances by other players, could end his Oilers career.
Possible starting position: Third-line centre
Ryan Potulny
There are two things to remember about newcomer Potulny: the Oilers acquired him this summer, presumably with a purpose in mind, and he's waiver-eligible. The fact that the team could lose him for nothing makes it highly probable that he starts the season with Edmonton, even if it is as pressbox fodder.
Like both Pouliot and Gilbert Brule, Rotulny is entering training camp with some NHL experience (44 games, 7 goals, 7 assists). He played a sheltered role on the 06-07 Philadelphia Flyers (one of the few teams worse than the Oilers of the same year) with a reasonable degree of success for a young player. A better statistical look at him can be found here. He can play centre and left-wing.
Possible starting position: Fourth-line winger
Rob Schremp
In contrast to Marc Pouliot, Rob Schremp has been the darling of the message boards since even before he was drafted in 2004. Bryanbryoil has been his biggest backer, and it's easy to see Schremp as an appealing player. He has always had the reputation for top-flight offensive skills, and solidified that reputation with a spectacular 2005-06 with the London Knights. He's been expected by some to make the team for every season since the lockout, and it seems likely that he will this season.
Standing in Schremp's way is a lot of bad luck. Robert Nilsson, Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano are all superior players, both in offensive and defensive play, and Schremp, coming off a knee injury, was passed by all three of them last season. He's also on a two-way contract and can be sent to the minors without needing to clear waivers. Working in his favour is his successful transition to the wing, where his future as an Oiler lies, and the reported work he's done on both his skating and his strength/conditioning. Personally, I think he's a better prospect than Potulny, but his two-way contract means that he's less likely to start the year in Edmonton. If he has a phenomenal training camp, Schremp may force his way on to a scoring line. I did a detailed comparison between Schremp and other highly touted OHL prospects here.
Possible starting position: Second-line winger
Liam Reddox
Like most of the players on the fringes of regular employment in Edmonton, size is not an asset for Liam Reddox. Despite that, however, he's managed to become a gritty, two-way player at the minor league level, even more remarkable given that in 2006-07, he couldn't crack 30 points in a full season at the ECHL level. His transformation over the summer of 2007 is possibly the biggest single-season leap ever taken by an Oilers prospect. His performance this year had Kelly Buchberger calling him an AHL-level Ryan Smyth.
He is in tough to make this roster, however. Despite his two-way play, Reddox doesn't have the same profile as a player like Schremp, Pouliot, or even Gilbert Brule, largely due to his invisibility in 2006-07 and his 4th round draft selection (draft position is, in my opinion, the most overrated way to judge a prospect 2+ years out). He will see time as an Oiler this season, but it likely won't be out of training camp. Still, a good showing in the fall could earn him a spot on the 4th line.
Possible starting position: Fourth-line winger
Gilbert Brule
A player who many have slotted closer to NHL duty, Gilbert Brule is a mess. After a stellar junior career culminating in his 6th overall selection by Columbus, Brule was rushed to the NHL level before he was ready, and in addition to a number of possibly career-limiting injuries, his confidence has to have been shattered. Despite 146 NHL games played, Brule is not at this point an NHL player. Columbus realized it toward the end of 2007-08, sending Brule to Syracuse, where he posted 10 points in 16 games.
Often compared to Michael Peca, for a number of reasons, Brule has yet to show that he has the durablity to survive his crash-and-bang mentality, or the offensive ability to score at the NHL level. Widely labelled a bust, he's still young (only 21) and has time to resurrect his career. He may see NHL duty this season, but probably not until injuries force a call-up.
Possible starting position: Fourth-line winger
Other players who may be considered for an NHL role, in order of likelihood:
Jean-Francois Jacques - has the physical tools for an NHL role, and the size, but injuries will likely prevent him from playing to start the season.
Bryan Lerg - undrafted college player is a gifted scorer, likely needs AHL time.
Slava Trukhno - skilled forward needs prime-time AHL development minutes.
Tim Sestito - role player was recently extended, but shouldn't get a job out of camp.
Ryan O'Marra - ECHL all-star last season. He isn't ready for that big a leap.
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14 comments
Comments
by Doogie2K on Jul 18, 2008 10:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
One of my favourite things about MacT.
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 18, 2008 10:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
F
Pouliot, Jacques, Schremp, Brule, Potulny, Reddox
D
Strudwick, Roy, Peckham
G
Deslauriers
Pouliot, Strudwick, Roy, Jacques and Deslauriers (as per Louiss @ HF)are on one-way deals. Deslauriers must clear waivers to go down.
I'd say Pouliot and Strudwick are virtual locks. I'm not a Deslauriers fan at all, but I could see him sticking around for opening night. Jacques, if healthy, probably has the inside track on the 13th forward spot.
Leaves some talented guys on the outside looking in. Never can I remember being so interested in who the Oilers put in the 22nd and 23rd spot on the roster.
by Boondock on Jul 18, 2008 11:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pouliot and Strudwick will be on the team, I agree. Jacques would have a good shot, but I really don't think he's healthy- otherwise he'd be in with Schremp as a likely.
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 18, 2008 12:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The 14th will be Schremp if the Oilers don't want to farm him and if it isn't Schremp, perhaps it's Poultny because they don't think he can slip through waivers and they'd rather deal him off for a pick.
You haven't gotten to the D, yet, but I think Roy gets waived and then you have Strudwick as your 7th and he keeps 5-37 honest.
As for the line construction, maybe the writers are looking at the official site's depth chart as well or maybe they heard the same KP interview I did but now in just about every story you read, Cole's listed as the first line LW.
I don't know how 27 is gonna take to being a checking line pivot with 34 and 51/78 but it's gonna be interesting to say the least.
by Dennis on Jul 18, 2008 12:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The 27-51-34 line at the Oilers site is an interesting thing. I've mentioned before that Brodziak (at least at this point in his career) is an offense-first, defense-second player, and Pisani certainly has some offensive instincts. I'm really wondering if the 4th line will be splitting tough minutes duty with the 3rd, since 18-78-46 are all fairly low-event guys.
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 18, 2008 12:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If he is outplayed by the other candidates -- send him down. If he doesn't clear waivers -- you only gave up Dan Syvret to get the guy. The downside isn't that bad.
I'm really wondering if the 4th line will be splitting tough minutes duty with the 3rd
I'm guessing that MacT rolls his lines and doesn't panic as much about matchups other than that 10 gets the heavies when they have the choice, and 89 gets the softies.
As long as 89's line goes on when Iginla/Gaborik/Sedins/Thornton/Getzlaf is coming off shift -- I think that that 3 and 4 line could each handle half a shift out against toughs. There is some good size, speed, and smarts in those combinations.
There is past history in how MacT likes to roll 4 at EV. And he'll let Huddy do the hard match at D. Mostly to shelter the third pair.
by NormanMendoza on Jul 18, 2008 2:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That agrees with what I've seen for the most part; with the caveat that since the lockout I think MacTavish has tried to get Pisani/Torres out against the big guns whenever possible, even over Horcoff's line.
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 18, 2008 2:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think he was hoping for that, but it wasn't that way for fairly significant stretches:
05-06
- was almost entirely PvP with 94-10-83 doing, with hard matching D pairs
06-07
- after about 20 GP and the need to shelter Lupul, and Moreau's early injury set up for 14-16-34 in the shutdown role and 94-10-83 got to play.
It worked for a short period of time, but 94 got injured, and it finished with 16 getting his bell rung. It was a mess after that
07-08
- after about 10 GP and realizing that Penner would need some sheltering -- 14-16-+ got thrown to the wolves. Despite them getting eaten, he kept with it -- probably as a nod to getting the chem with Penner-Horc-Hemsky right. They played it that way right to the end of the season.
I think Cole gives the a legitimate LW that has played against the other team's best. Horc and Hemsky might not be as prolific -- but that is a true EV outscore line.
Whomever of 51/78 win the audition for "next toughest" will get a little bit of protection.
by NormanMendoza on Jul 18, 2008 4:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We clearly need another physical/energy/banger type player on the bottom lines to compensate for all the small finesse players in the top 9 and its not going to be Schremp or or one of the other offensive prospects.
by Traktor on Jul 18, 2008 6:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
In his PC 10 alluded to the fact that a lot of the top players were going HTH now so given that he's done that for a long time, 83's getting better and better at it and 26 has done it for the Canes, I'd expect that troika to take on Iginla, Gaborik etc for 41 games a season. So, it's really not a lot to ask 27/34 plus to take on the opp's second line, as it were.
If I could pick how things played out this season, I'd hope the Oil's PP is a lot better on the road than it is at home because on the road, the opp coach will be killing himself to get his guns out against the kids. There's really no way to combat that so you'd hope we pick up the slack on the PP.
One other thing is that we might see 27 taking big draws on that third line.
by Dennis on Jul 18, 2008 6:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You could already see coaches bush-sitting on the kids -- and MacT even let it happen a few times when he could have made a change at the D-zone faceoff.
Not a protocol for winning, but I'm certain he was explicitly giving the kids a "learning moment." Reflecting on 10's PC, if the coachable players on this team are listening to what he says and what the coach says -- they really understand the principle of outscoring. I can imagine MacT sitting with the kids and breaking down the the film.
I believe in the coach's ability to teach players how to think through the game -- he always talks about "managing the decisions" in the game. I think he has a nice (one vet C short) blend of players that can really understand this.
I'm starting to believe. Damn this fucking team, this year is going to be tough on the heart.
by NormanMendoza on Jul 19, 2008 6:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Given that 10's line will take on the toughs, there's not a whole lot for 34's line -- we'll call it that for now because he's the constant on the alternate checking line -- to face. Plus, the kids line has enough talent that I think they might just tear up the soft opp at evens.
Also, the PP was pretty good for ~ the last 60 games last season, wasn't it? I've been meaning to look this up and I will eventually;) and while my " the Oilers PK will always be good no matter who they ice" theory will be tested once/if 18 goes down again for the season, like I said, they always manage to get it done.
Of course there are questions in net. When he plays, Garon's good but did he get hurt last year because he wore down? We just gave JDD a bump so he's likely to be his backup and he's not going to be much help for Garon this season.
You're looking at 65 games from him this year; he did play 63 for the Kings in '06 but his PCT was sub .900 and of course that was on a bad team as well.
Still in all, I think we're good enough to make the playoffs if Garon stays healthy; I'm expecting Roli out the door come the start of the season now that JDD"s been signed. They'll try and trade him first and if that fails, I think they'll waive him. I guess they could go 13 F - 7 D - 3 goalies and keep Roli for insurance, but I think the bed's been pretty much made now.
by Dennis on Jul 19, 2008 7:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You're looking at 65 games from him this year; he did play 63 for the Kings in '06 but his PCT was sub .900 and of course that was on a bad team as well.
Yeah, the biggest question mark with Garon is undoubtedly whether he can handle a 60+ game workload. The most games he's ever played is 63, and the results weren't pretty.
Which is why I won't understand if the Oilers enter 2008-09 without a capable backup.
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 19, 2008 9:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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