Resisting Temptation
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 13, 2008 10:20 AM MDT
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Every so often, I get the fairy-tale notion in my head that the Oilers could contend next season. Lowe's ambiguous statements ("We wouldn't mind trying to get another top-end forward") can be interpreted to support that idea.
The I get thinking about the current group. Can we win with a top line of Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky? I think so. All showed an ability last season to handle any kind of competition, and I think all of them are legitimate first line players. I look at the defense and think it could use one more player, a point I've made so many times that I should probably not make it again.
I look at the forward depth. I'm completely sold on Pisani - Torres as two-thirds of a really decent tough minutes line, and I like all of the guys contending for a 4th line position. I'm not sure how Stoll fits into the equation- likely he'll get another try at the 3rd line pivot spot, but in this whimsical scenario, he's replaced with a more legitimate tough minutes guy.
However, to turn this team into a contender, I do see one other large hole (outside the defense), and that's on the second line. Cogliano - Gagner - Nilsson, despite the lovely stretch run, are not a group I'd want to rely on for secondary scoring. I think Nilsson's fine as a complementary player, incidentally. Gagner is a special player, albeit one who isn't ready for a key role on a contending team, but someone who is going to stay with this team for the foreseeable future, and in all likelihood will eventually be the man on offense.
This takes me (finally!) to my point. The player who would have to go in this scenario is Cogliano. Now, Cogliano is a good player. He had nice results against soft opponents last year as a rookie, and he brings a variety of wonderful skills. That said, it seems extremely unlikely that he repeats his Kovalchukian shooting percentage next year, as I've noted before. He's small, as with virtually every other top-six forward on the team (Penner being the lone exception). He has a really nice upside, but this actually works against him - he probably won't ever be an elite player, so he's expendable, but at the same time he's good enough to be the key piece in bringing back a top-6 forward.
That is where this scenario falls apart. The Oilers must not trade Cogliano. He's a key member of the youth movement, a player with dazzling speed who (in my opinion) will be a key penalty-killer next season, and should turn into the slightly-damning projection that we've been hearing since he was drafted ("Todd Marchant with hands"). Laughable as it is, Todd Marchant with hands is a very valuable player (the main problem being that whenever we hear that projection, all I hear is "Todd Marchant redux" - ie Jason Chimera). I really feel that Cogliano will be defensively responsible, filling either the 2nd or 3rd line centre role on a contending team. As long as the Oilers add some size on the wings, I don't see any reason not to go with Gagner/Cogliano down the middle in the future.
This coming season should see improvement from the Oilers. Acquire a decent shut-down guy and the playoffs are a lock, in my opinion. The key here is to have reasonable expectations - because that is what's best for both the mid- and long-term success of the club
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I'm with ya Jonathan. The Oilers are at least a year away but I think will still make the playoffs. Their best chance of contending (well 2-3 round) is to bank on development and make a couple solid moves on deadline day. Banking on development should include both Pitkanen and Cogliano - IMO our only tradeable assets with cachet.
by Sean on Jun 13, 2008 11:43 AM MDT reply actions
I'm not sure how Stoll fits into the equation- likely he'll get another try at the 3rd line pivot spot, but in this whimsical scenario, he's replaced with a more legitimate tough minutes guy.
Huh?
Stoll is more likely to be 3C next year than Torres 3L, unless Torres is untradeable.
Stoll played 1C minutes for a big chunk of last year, and being a rightie, depended on Penner to set him up (which is why Spezza is not coming here).
He was adjusting fine to the 3C minutes, it usually takes about a half a season, sometimes longer, but being vaulted into 1C changed all that.
Stoll will return as the 3C guy.
The only question will be who the 3L guys is? Tico or Ethan. I prefer Ethan's consistent effort, good attitude, and leadership. Raffi is a good player, but is in many ways the opposite of the above qualities, and he should have more value in a trade.
However, to turn this team into a contender, I do see one other large hole (outside the defense), and that's on the second line. Cogliano - Gagner - Nilsson...
...This takes me to my point. The player who would have to go in this scenario is Cogliano.
And you're right about the weak line. I've been pimping an improvement to this line since the off-season began.
And you identified the weak link - Cogliano. I've been pimping him as trade bait for weeks.
However you provide us no good reason for not trading Cogliano.
Because he will be a key PKer next year?
What?
You'll give up on your secondary scoring concerns b/c Cogs will be a key PKer next year?
He hasn't even started the apprenticeship program yet, much less "muscled" his way into "key" status. He's awful defensively, doesn't have great hockey sense, can't win a face-off, has poor reach...
And he's going to play PK ahead of Horc, Moreau, Pisani, Reasoner, Stoll, Torres, Brodziak, Hemsky?
The only way that happens is if the Oil is desperate to find him some ice time.
Now, when he's done his apprenticeship, his speed will be an asset, but that's no reason to not trade a guy... because a year or two from now he might be an effective PKer.
He has to go. In five years we will want our 2C to be our 1C.
Neither Gagner nor Cogs have the size to be a 1C (see your fave contract, Briere). AND, if Gagner did become a 1C, would you want the 2C to be Cogliano's size?
I sure wouldn't.
So why wait?
Trade now for a Carter/Jo. Staal type, while these guys' rights are still obtainable.
Lowe can't afford to hang onto the past, or the hope that Cogs will be a "key" PKer, if he wants to improve the team for years to come.
Acquire a decent shut-down guy and the playoffs are a lock, in my opinion.
Some would say we're getting that guy in Souray.
Not to mention, Smid and Greene also play that role, and are developing into it, AND we have Peckham backstage.
How much of an improvement are we going to gain by signing Commodore?
If this is the year we want to do damage, then yeah, bring in Mike.
But aren't we supposed to be extolling the virtues of developing people by repeatedly placing them in the situations even though they might initially fail, like the Red Wings?
Smid's gone in any case, we have far too many bodies on the left side.
Greene, however, will be tough to replace on the right side.
The only option would be to abandon him and sign a Commodore type to a long term contract and demote Staios to the 3rd pairing, but then we'd have cap hit issues, especially if there's an improvement coming to the top6 forwards and we're retaining Pitkanen.
Huh?
Stoll is more likely to be 3C next year than Torres 3L, unless Torres is untradeable.
Stoll played 1C minutes for a big chunk of last year, and being a rightie, depended on Penner to set him up (which is why Spezza is not coming here).
He was adjusting fine to the 3C minutes, it usually takes about a half a season, sometimes longer, but being vaulted into 1C changed all that.
Stoll will return as the 3C guy.
The only question will be who the 3L guys is? Tico or Ethan. I prefer Ethan's consistent effort, good attitude, and leadership. Raffi is a good player, but is in many ways the opposite of the above qualities, and he should have more value in a trade.
However, to turn this team into a contender, I do see one other large hole (outside the defense), and that's on the second line. Cogliano - Gagner - Nilsson...
...This takes me to my point. The player who would have to go in this scenario is Cogliano.
And you're right about the weak line. I've been pimping an improvement to this line since the off-season began.
And you identified the weak link - Cogliano. I've been pimping him as trade bait for weeks.
However you provide us no good reason for not trading Cogliano.
Because he will be a key PKer next year?
What?
You'll give up on your secondary scoring concerns b/c Cogs will be a key PKer next year?
He hasn't even started the apprenticeship program yet, much less "muscled" his way into "key" status. He's awful defensively, doesn't have great hockey sense, can't win a face-off, has poor reach...
And he's going to play PK ahead of Horc, Moreau, Pisani, Reasoner, Stoll, Torres, Brodziak, Hemsky?
The only way that happens is if the Oil is desperate to find him some ice time.
Now, when he's done his apprenticeship, his speed will be an asset, but that's no reason to not trade a guy... because a year or two from now he might be an effective PKer.
He has to go. In five years we will want our 2C to be our 1C.
Neither Gagner nor Cogs have the size to be a 1C (see your fave contract, Briere). AND, if Gagner did become a 1C, would you want the 2C to be Cogliano's size?
I sure wouldn't.
So why wait?
Trade now for a Carter/Jo. Staal type, while these guys' rights are still obtainable.
Lowe can't afford to hang onto the past, or the hope that Cogs will be a "key" PKer, if he wants to improve the team for years to come.
Acquire a decent shut-down guy and the playoffs are a lock, in my opinion.
Some would say we're getting that guy in Souray.
Not to mention, Smid and Greene also play that role, and are developing into it, AND we have Peckham backstage.
How much of an improvement are we going to gain by signing Commodore?
If this is the year we want to do damage, then yeah, bring in Mike.
But aren't we supposed to be extolling the virtues of developing people by repeatedly placing them in the situations even though they might initially fail, like the Red Wings?
Smid's gone in any case, we have far too many bodies on the left side.
Greene, however, will be tough to replace on the right side.
The only option would be to abandon him and sign a Commodore type to a long term contract and demote Staios to the 3rd pairing, but then we'd have cap hit issues, especially if there's an improvement coming to the top6 forwards and we're retaining Pitkanen.
by spOILer on Jun 13, 2008 12:28 PM MDT reply actions
First off, wow. Nice comment.
Stoll played 1C minutes for a big chunk of last year, and being a rightie, depended on Penner to set him up (which is why Spezza is not coming here).
Stoll couldn't produce offense in a scoring role, and got lit up playing against elite competition in a defensive role.
The only question will be who the 3L guys is? Tico or Ethan. I prefer Ethan's consistent effort, good attitude, and leadership. Raffi is a good player, but is in many ways the opposite of the above qualities, and he should have more value in a trade.
And I prefer how Torres has (unlike Moreau) a) played a full season in the past two years, b) not gotten lit up by tough opposition when he did play (take a peak at Moreau's stats over at Behind the Net for the past two years. I was surprised) and c) got some scoring ability.
However you provide us no good reason for not trading Cogliano.
Because he will be a key PKer next year?
What?
Sorry if I was unclear. I think that Cogliano will be a key penalty-killer next season because of his speed and his excellent numbers as the #7 option this year.
That isn't why he should not be traded though- the reason the team should keep him is because, 3 years down the road when the Oilers could be a contending team, he should be a defensively responsible forward with great speed and scoring ability. Those players don't grow on trees. As for the size concerns of Gagner/Cogliano down the middle, if we have size on the wings and a big guy on the 3rd line, I'm not too worried.
Neither Gagner nor Cogs have the size to be a 1C (see your fave contract, Briere). AND, if Gagner did become a 1C, would you want the 2C to be Cogliano's size?
Nonsense. I'll see your Briere and raise you a Datsyuk (5'10, 168lbs), Sakic (5'11, 185lbs) and Savard (5'10, 175lbs). Gagner (5'10, 191lbs) will be just fine as a number one centre, and I don't think Cogliano will be, but that has more to do with talent ceiling than size.
Some would say we're getting that guy in Souray.
Not to mention, Smid and Greene also play that role, and are developing into it, AND we have Peckham backstage.
Are you one of those who would say we're getting that in Souray? Has he ever done it before?
Smid is developing, and looked out of his depth playing against 2nd-tier guys this last season, but let's assume he jumps up and can handle middling minutes.
Greene has never been a shutdown defenseman, unless we consider shutting down guys like Eric Godard and Wayne Primeau as counting. MacTavish and Huddy have shielded him since day one, and that needs to end now. If Greene can't handle at least middling opponents in his (upcoming) 4th NHL season at age 25, we should just give up on him.
As for Peckham, someday maybe, but I can't recall ever seeing anything other than an elite defenseman come in as a rookie and handle tough minutes successfully. He's a good prospect, but it's quite a step to go from "good prospect" to "on the ice with 5 minutes left against Iginla".
How much of an improvement are we going to gain by signing Commodore?
I don't particularly want Commodore. What I want is a quiet, effective shutdown guy for 2.5M/yr or less. Malik and Sauer are two possibilities, and I'm sure there are others.
Stoll played 1C minutes for a big chunk of last year, and being a rightie, depended on Penner to set him up (which is why Spezza is not coming here).
Stoll couldn't produce offense in a scoring role, and got lit up playing against elite competition in a defensive role.
The only question will be who the 3L guys is? Tico or Ethan. I prefer Ethan's consistent effort, good attitude, and leadership. Raffi is a good player, but is in many ways the opposite of the above qualities, and he should have more value in a trade.
And I prefer how Torres has (unlike Moreau) a) played a full season in the past two years, b) not gotten lit up by tough opposition when he did play (take a peak at Moreau's stats over at Behind the Net for the past two years. I was surprised) and c) got some scoring ability.
However you provide us no good reason for not trading Cogliano.
Because he will be a key PKer next year?
What?
Sorry if I was unclear. I think that Cogliano will be a key penalty-killer next season because of his speed and his excellent numbers as the #7 option this year.
That isn't why he should not be traded though- the reason the team should keep him is because, 3 years down the road when the Oilers could be a contending team, he should be a defensively responsible forward with great speed and scoring ability. Those players don't grow on trees. As for the size concerns of Gagner/Cogliano down the middle, if we have size on the wings and a big guy on the 3rd line, I'm not too worried.
Neither Gagner nor Cogs have the size to be a 1C (see your fave contract, Briere). AND, if Gagner did become a 1C, would you want the 2C to be Cogliano's size?
Nonsense. I'll see your Briere and raise you a Datsyuk (5'10, 168lbs), Sakic (5'11, 185lbs) and Savard (5'10, 175lbs). Gagner (5'10, 191lbs) will be just fine as a number one centre, and I don't think Cogliano will be, but that has more to do with talent ceiling than size.
Some would say we're getting that guy in Souray.
Not to mention, Smid and Greene also play that role, and are developing into it, AND we have Peckham backstage.
Are you one of those who would say we're getting that in Souray? Has he ever done it before?
Smid is developing, and looked out of his depth playing against 2nd-tier guys this last season, but let's assume he jumps up and can handle middling minutes.
Greene has never been a shutdown defenseman, unless we consider shutting down guys like Eric Godard and Wayne Primeau as counting. MacTavish and Huddy have shielded him since day one, and that needs to end now. If Greene can't handle at least middling opponents in his (upcoming) 4th NHL season at age 25, we should just give up on him.
As for Peckham, someday maybe, but I can't recall ever seeing anything other than an elite defenseman come in as a rookie and handle tough minutes successfully. He's a good prospect, but it's quite a step to go from "good prospect" to "on the ice with 5 minutes left against Iginla".
How much of an improvement are we going to gain by signing Commodore?
I don't particularly want Commodore. What I want is a quiet, effective shutdown guy for 2.5M/yr or less. Malik and Sauer are two possibilities, and I'm sure there are others.
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 13, 2008 12:51 PM MDT reply actions
Smid will be a far better player than Greene. I get the feeling Greene is filler right now.
by jdrevenge on Jun 13, 2008 3:07 PM MDT reply actions
Stoll couldn't produce offense in a scoring role, and got lit up playing against elite competition in a defensive role.
Because of the quality of his opposition, and because he was a RH shot who had difficulty taking passes fr Hemmer and giving passes to Hemmer.
His crash and bang style of play was also unsuited to the line.
And I prefer how Torres has (unlike Moreau) a) played a full season in the past two years, b) not gotten lit up by tough opposition when he did play (take a peak at Moreau's stats over at Behind the Net for the past two years. I was surprised) and c) got some scoring ability.
It's pretty much a coin flip for me. Moreau out-scored Raffi's pace in his short stint last year, so point (c) isn't valid, if I'm going to allow point (b). Attitude is what scares me the most. As I'd said, I'd move him because he'd bring more back, than for any of the above reasons.
Nonsense. I'll see your Briere and raise you a Datsyuk (5'10, 168lbs), Sakic (5'11, 185lbs) and Savard (5'10, 175lbs). Gagner (5'10, 191lbs) will be just fine as a number one centre, and I don't think Cogliano will be, but that has more to do with talent ceiling than size.
All except Savard have better wheels than Gagner. Savard is more of a passer and avoids the tough areas by pulling traffic towards himself and then dishing (like a young Joe Thornton). Datsyuk does much of the same. Sakic has an unbelievable shot... This argument would take forever to get properly into, and I'm rushing here to make happy hour, sorry. I think the probabilities are on the side of size al la Lecav, Thornton, Staal, Spezza, etc.
Smid is developing, and looked out of his depth playing against 2nd-tier guys this last season, but let's assume he jumps up and can handle middling minutes.
Greene has never been a shutdown defenseman, unless we consider shutting down guys like Eric Godard and Wayne Primeau as counting.
Maybe you can't see it, but "shutdown" is the role these guys play and are being developed to play against better opp. Neither Smid nor Greene is a puck-mover or a PP QB, or a rushing defenseman. They're defensive defenseman, or "defensive defenseman in training", if you prefer.
JD... Smid goes out of a numbers game. I agree, he's likely to be better than Green in the long run, but he plays the other side. Grebs is in Smid's spot, not Greene.
Because of the quality of his opposition, and because he was a RH shot who had difficulty taking passes fr Hemmer and giving passes to Hemmer.
His crash and bang style of play was also unsuited to the line.
And I prefer how Torres has (unlike Moreau) a) played a full season in the past two years, b) not gotten lit up by tough opposition when he did play (take a peak at Moreau's stats over at Behind the Net for the past two years. I was surprised) and c) got some scoring ability.
It's pretty much a coin flip for me. Moreau out-scored Raffi's pace in his short stint last year, so point (c) isn't valid, if I'm going to allow point (b). Attitude is what scares me the most. As I'd said, I'd move him because he'd bring more back, than for any of the above reasons.
Nonsense. I'll see your Briere and raise you a Datsyuk (5'10, 168lbs), Sakic (5'11, 185lbs) and Savard (5'10, 175lbs). Gagner (5'10, 191lbs) will be just fine as a number one centre, and I don't think Cogliano will be, but that has more to do with talent ceiling than size.
All except Savard have better wheels than Gagner. Savard is more of a passer and avoids the tough areas by pulling traffic towards himself and then dishing (like a young Joe Thornton). Datsyuk does much of the same. Sakic has an unbelievable shot... This argument would take forever to get properly into, and I'm rushing here to make happy hour, sorry. I think the probabilities are on the side of size al la Lecav, Thornton, Staal, Spezza, etc.
Smid is developing, and looked out of his depth playing against 2nd-tier guys this last season, but let's assume he jumps up and can handle middling minutes.
Greene has never been a shutdown defenseman, unless we consider shutting down guys like Eric Godard and Wayne Primeau as counting.
Maybe you can't see it, but "shutdown" is the role these guys play and are being developed to play against better opp. Neither Smid nor Greene is a puck-mover or a PP QB, or a rushing defenseman. They're defensive defenseman, or "defensive defenseman in training", if you prefer.
JD... Smid goes out of a numbers game. I agree, he's likely to be better than Green in the long run, but he plays the other side. Grebs is in Smid's spot, not Greene.
by spOILer on Jun 13, 2008 8:11 PM MDT reply actions
Maybe you can't see it, but "shutdown" is the role these guys play and are being developed to play against better opp. Neither Smid nor Greene is a puck-mover or a PP QB, or a rushing defenseman. They're defensive defenseman, or "defensive defenseman in training", if you prefer.
Certainly that is the role they are being groomed for, but Matt Greene has to date never shown the ability to handle it- he plays, by far, the easiest minutes of any regular Oilers defenseman.
Certainly that is the role they are being groomed for, but Matt Greene has to date never shown the ability to handle it- he plays, by far, the easiest minutes of any regular Oilers defenseman.
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 13, 2008 10:29 PM MDT reply actions
Certainly that is the role they are being groomed for, but Matt Greene has to date never shown the ability to handle it- he plays, by far, the easiest minutes of any regular Oilers defenseman.
I think you answered your own argument here:
I can't recall ever seeing anything other than an elite defenseman come in as a rookie and handle tough minutes successfully.
Jason Smith was traded for a few reasons, one of which was Greene.
It may be that the Oil were protecting Greene more than normal when he came back fom knee injury. I don't know. But that's the type of injury it normally takes a year to recover from.
We shall see if it has permanently screwed his development.
As for Souray...
He has a rep for being an excellent cycle-killer. I don't think I'd have him against lines that rush more, but I'd have no qualms at putting him out against board possession lines.
He doesn't have great agility or vision, and has always made his niche as a defensive defenseman (with a great shot in the latter half of his career), as shown by his excellent PK stats.
B/c of his shot, there is the tendency to play him in the top pairing offensive role, but that would be foolish.
He's kind of like the Stoll of defensemen. You can play Stoll with success on PP, but not on the first line.
I think you answered your own argument here:
I can't recall ever seeing anything other than an elite defenseman come in as a rookie and handle tough minutes successfully.
Jason Smith was traded for a few reasons, one of which was Greene.
It may be that the Oil were protecting Greene more than normal when he came back fom knee injury. I don't know. But that's the type of injury it normally takes a year to recover from.
We shall see if it has permanently screwed his development.
As for Souray...
He has a rep for being an excellent cycle-killer. I don't think I'd have him against lines that rush more, but I'd have no qualms at putting him out against board possession lines.
He doesn't have great agility or vision, and has always made his niche as a defensive defenseman (with a great shot in the latter half of his career), as shown by his excellent PK stats.
B/c of his shot, there is the tendency to play him in the top pairing offensive role, but that would be foolish.
He's kind of like the Stoll of defensemen. You can play Stoll with success on PP, but not on the first line.
by spOILer on Jun 14, 2008 1:52 PM MDT reply actions
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