Oilers Forwards by Quality of Opposition, 2007-08

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 11, 2008 2:00 PM MDT

Behind the Net does a wonderful job of providing fans with information that they need when evalutaing trades; most helpful, in my mind, is the data on quality of competition/quality of teammates. Quality of competition gives us an idea of who each player managed their performances against, and thus how to value them.

The data below also includes GFON/60 and GAON/60 data, which is extracted from +/- at 5-on-5 and time on ice (TOI).

1. Stoll: .16, GF: 1.51, GA: 3.09
2. Hemsky: .08, GF: 2.71 GA: 2.94
3. Reasoner: .06, GF: 2.20, GA: 3.33
4. Penner: .03, GF: 2.56, GA: 2.78
5. Torres: .02, GF: 2.04, GA: 2.31
Horcoff: .02, GF: 3.14, GA: 2.67
Pisani: .02, GF: 2.37, GA: 2.74
8. Moreau: 0, GF: 1.62, GA: 2.63
9. Gagner: -.01, GF 2.33, GA: 3.19
Nilsson: -.01, GF: 2.98, GA: 2.29
11. Brodziak: -.02, GF: 2.76, GA: 3.44
12. Cogliano: -.03, GF: 2.92, GA: 2.99
13. Sanderson: -.04, GF: 2.15, GA: 3.47
14. Glencross: -.05, GF: 2.54, GA: 1.88
15. Stortini: -.06, GF: 2.38, GA: 2.04
16. Pouliot: -.12, GF: 2.58, GA: 2.84

Thos numbers should give pause to everyone pencilling the Oilers in for a nice playoff spot next year. The 5 players to face the toughest opposition were outscored, with Penner and Hemsky closest to holding their own. Lowe's talked extensively about getting a top-6 forward, and when he says that I really hope he means someone who can play against tough opposition, which is one of the clearest needs this team has.

The reason I post this is that people can see how badly individual players got shot up last season, and that there are only four players who outplayed their opponents night-in and night-out (Horcoff, Nilsson, Glencross and Stortini). Six players got outscored by at least .5 goals per 60 minutes of play, with a few of them (Stoll, Reasoner, Moreau) getting outscored by a full goal or more.

Despite the standings, despite the late season drive, this team was absolutely brutal 5-on-5 last year. They'll be better this year, but the status quo simply isn't good enough, barring massive improvements by large portions of the roster. Good teams outscore their opposition. The Oilers are still a ways back from being a good team.

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Comments

Interesting. Im of the mindset of a couple others in thinking that its going to be just as tough if not tougher for the oilers to make the playoffs again next year.

by jdrevenge on Jun 11, 2008 6:18 PM MDT reply actions

"Lowe's talked extensively about getting a top-6 forward, and when he says that I really hope he means someone who can play against tough opposition, which is one of the clearest needs this team has."

Simon Gagne is +123 in his NHL career, a 2-time 40 goal scorer, and can keep up to Hemsky. He's also allow for Penner to go back to kicking the shit out of the soft minute opportunities, and move both Gagner and Cogliano back to their natural positions, unless Cogliano goes as part of the package.

by doritogrande on Jun 11, 2008 7:27 PM MDT reply actions

Simon Gagne is +123 in his NHL career, a 2-time 40 goal scorer, and can keep up to Hemsky. He's also allow for Penner to go back to kicking the shit out of the soft minute opportunities, and move both Gagner and Cogliano back to their natural positions, unless Cogliano goes as part of the package.

I like Gagne. I just doubt he is available for what the Oilers could offer- if I am Paul Holmgren, I would salary dump a lot of players before I considered Gagner.

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 11, 2008 8:54 PM MDT reply actions

I have been pondering the opportunity to get Gagne for the past couple weeks now. If Philly wants to resign Carter and Umberger they need to move salary. Keeping in mind that Keith Primeau never played a game after his concussion issues I think Gagne could be had.

They need puck movers. I wonder if a Greb+ package would get Philly interested.

by Sean on Jun 12, 2008 10:41 AM MDT reply actions

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Northwest Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	54	34	15	5	73
Colorado Mile High Hockey	56	28	25	3	59
Minnesota Hockey Wilderness	54	25	21	8	58
Calgary Matchsticks and Gasoline	55	25	22	8	58
Edmonton The Copper & Blue	54	21	28	5	47

(updated 2.11.2012 at 6:02 AM MST)

22 - 28 - 5

Streak: Won 1

Oilers Schedule

Next 5 Games

Toronto Pension Plan Puppets	Wed 02/15	8:00 PM MST
Colorado Mile High Hockey	Fri 02/17	7:30 PM MST
Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Sun 02/19	7:00 PM MST
@ Calgary Matchsticks and Gasoline	Tue 02/21	7:00 PM MST
Philadelphia Broad Street Hockey	Thu 02/23	7:30 PM MST

Last 5 Games

@ Ottawa Silver Seven	Sat 02/11	OT - W 4 - 3
@ Detroit Winging It In Motown	Wed 02/08	L 2 - 4
@ Toronto Pension Plan Puppets	Mon 02/06	L 3 - 6
Detroit Winging It In Motown	Sat 02/04	SO - W 5 - 4
Chicago Second City Hockey	Thu 02/02	W 8 - 4