Oilers Forwards by Quality of Opposition, 2007-08



Behind the Net does a wonderful job of providing fans with information that they need when evalutaing trades; most helpful, in my mind, is the data on quality of competition/quality of teammates. Quality of competition gives us an idea of who each player managed their performances against, and thus how to value them.

The data below also includes GFON/60 and GAON/60 data, which is extracted from +/- at 5-on-5 and time on ice (TOI).

1. Stoll: .16, GF: 1.51, GA: 3.09
2. Hemsky: .08, GF: 2.71 GA: 2.94
3. Reasoner: .06, GF: 2.20, GA: 3.33
4. Penner: .03, GF: 2.56, GA: 2.78
5. Torres: .02, GF: 2.04, GA: 2.31
Horcoff: .02, GF: 3.14, GA: 2.67
Pisani: .02, GF: 2.37, GA: 2.74
8. Moreau: 0, GF: 1.62, GA: 2.63
9. Gagner: -.01, GF 2.33, GA: 3.19
Nilsson: -.01, GF: 2.98, GA: 2.29
11. Brodziak: -.02, GF: 2.76, GA: 3.44
12. Cogliano: -.03, GF: 2.92, GA: 2.99
13. Sanderson: -.04, GF: 2.15, GA: 3.47
14. Glencross: -.05, GF: 2.54, GA: 1.88
15. Stortini: -.06, GF: 2.38, GA: 2.04
16. Pouliot: -.12, GF: 2.58, GA: 2.84

Thos numbers should give pause to everyone pencilling the Oilers in for a nice playoff spot next year. The 5 players to face the toughest opposition were outscored, with Penner and Hemsky closest to holding their own. Lowe's talked extensively about getting a top-6 forward, and when he says that I really hope he means someone who can play against tough opposition, which is one of the clearest needs this team has.

The reason I post this is that people can see how badly individual players got shot up last season, and that there are only four players who outplayed their opponents night-in and night-out (Horcoff, Nilsson, Glencross and Stortini). Six players got outscored by at least .5 goals per 60 minutes of play, with a few of them (Stoll, Reasoner, Moreau) getting outscored by a full goal or more.

Despite the standings, despite the late season drive, this team was absolutely brutal 5-on-5 last year. They'll be better this year, but the status quo simply isn't good enough, barring massive improvements by large portions of the roster. Good teams outscore their opposition. The Oilers are still a ways back from being a good team.

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