Contracts That Make Dustin Penner Look Cheap

by Jonathan Willis on May 12, 2008 3:05 PM MDT

No, not Garon. The player taking the shot is 2-time 57-point scorer Martin Erat, who was due to be a restricted free agent. No longer.

TSN is reporting that Erat today signed a seven year, 31.5-million dollar contract extension, for an average cap hit of 4.5million/year. Erat set a career high this season with 23 goals.

It's difficult to compare contracts from summer to summer, but this signing should make it painfully obvious that Penner's contract should no longer be considered an overpay- even if it was at the time the market has changed, and I suspect that as time goes by that contract will look nicer and nicer. Especially if Penner pots thirty.

One thing to remember about the NHL now- salaries are a zero sum game. There's a definite amount of money out there to be spent, and if teams are spending more on their restricted free agents, perhaps the grossly inflated UFA market becomes more realistic as fewer dollars are available. Either that, or end of roster players become less and less valuable, as good-elite RFA/UFA players eat up all the dollars.

Either way, the Penner signing wasn't bad, and Hemsky was an absolute steal. And we should stop talking about Horcoff signing for less than 5.5 million/season.

Update: TSN.ca is reporting that the contract has been rejected by the NHL for violating a clause in the CBA regulating year-to-year fluctuations in Salary. They than point out that it means the Predators will need to move the dollars around respective years and than resubmit it. It's presently modelled 3.5, 5.25, 5.25, 6, 5.5, 3.5, 2.5. I have no idea what advantage there is to distributing the dollars like that.

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Keep in mind that Erat's a terrific defensive player, too, and much closer to his prime years than Penner.

There's more to the guy than just being a 57-point scorer.

by James Mirtle on May 12, 2008 3:38 PM MDT reply actions

There's more to the guy than just being a 57-point scorer.

There isn't much doubt that Erat's a complete player, but at the same time, he doesn't bring the same size to the team.

Also, given that the Predators own his rights, there was less reason for them to offer him an upper-tier salary (they weren't trying to keep another team from matching).

Finally, the contract is over seven years instead of five. As for being close to prime years, I hadn't thought of that because their ages are close, but I suppose Erat's played at a higher level for a longer time.

by Jonathan Willis on May 12, 2008 3:56 PM MDT reply actions

As you allude, it's not entirely fair to compare contracts from year to year, given rising cap space and the eroding effects of inflation, both of which will make the Penner contract look better over time (assuming cap space continues to rise, ditto inflation).

However, I'm not sure you can discuss Penner's contract without mentioning the draft picks Lowe had to cough up as part of the offer sheet. While Erat's deal may seem steep, the Predators keep their draft picks. From a net perspective, which contract is better, including picks forsaken?

by Bohologo on May 12, 2008 8:53 PM MDT reply actions

However, I'm not sure you can discuss Penner's contract without mentioning the draft picks Lowe had to cough up as part of the offer sheet. While Erat's deal may seem steep, the Predators keep their draft picks. From a net perspective, which contract is better, including picks forsaken?

Obviously the picks skew things big time- I like to view it as a trade, with the question being if Penner's hockey skills are worth three picks, and I'd argue that they are, if just barely at this point.

I was more arguing that Penner's 4.25-million cap hit doesn't seem nearly so unreasonable now as it did when it was signed.

by Jonathan Willis on May 12, 2008 10:48 PM MDT reply actions

I think your right. If Penner pots 30, 4.25 is a fair price.

Yes your better off with the picks but the picks was the price to get the player. If the contract becomes fair dollar value then the acquisition becomes picks vs Penner. I dont think there is a GM in the league who wouldnt trade a 12th overall pick for a 6"5 LW who scores 30 goals.

Now if only Penner could score 30.

by Sean on May 13, 2008 8:50 AM MDT reply actions

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