Power-play, 2007-08

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 13, 2008 2:19 PM MDT

The Edmonton Oilers powerplay operated at 16.6% efficiency, tied for 20th (with ANA) in the NHL, and ahead of four playoff teams (NYR, NJ, NSH & COL). Still not a strength, there were however some encouraging signs for a team that has historically struggled with the extra man, icing players such as Toby Peterson & Todd Marchant. As with penalty-killing, these statistics are limited to players averaging more than .5 min/60 and who played in at least 20 games. Given that Jarret Stoll was a constant on the point, he's included as a defenceman.

Defence:

TOI/60: Pitkanen: 4.07, Souray: 4.04, Stoll: 3.74, Gilbert: 2.19, Grebeshkov: 2.02

PTS/60: Stoll: 3.77, Gilbert: 3.01, Pitkanen: 2.11, Souray: 1.72, Grebeshkov: 1.26

GFON/60: Stoll: 6.94, Grebeshkov: 6.71, Souray: 6.29, Gilbert: 5.36, Pitkanen: 5.15

GAON/60: Grebeshkov: 0.42, Stoll: 0.79, Souray: 1.14, Gilbert: 1.67, Pitkanen: 1.87

+/- ON/60: Grebeshkov: 6.29, Stoll: 6.15, Souray: 5.15, Gilbert: 3.68, Pitkanen: 3.28

Conclusions: I am extremely confused by this data. Gilbert & Pitkanen were the most effective defencemen at generating points, while the powerplay posted its best numbers when Souray & Grebeshkov were on. Comments, explanations, anybody?

The one thing I am sure of is that Jarret Stoll's rotten year didn't extend to the powerplay.

Forwards:

TOI/60: Horcoff: 3.96, Hemsky: 3.69, Penner: 3.59, Gagner: 2.74, Torres: 2.63, Nilsson: 2.22, Cogliano: 2.03, Pisani: 1.82, Moreau: 0.93, Glencross: 0.92, Reasoner: 0.58, Sanderson: 0.52

PTS/60: Hemsky: 5.93, Moreau: 5.15, Penner: 4.07, Horcoff: 4.00, Gagner: 3.88, Pisani: 2.94, Sanderson: 2.81, Nilsson: 2.66, Cogliano: 2.52, Reasoner: 2.52, Glencross: 2.09, Torres: 1.43

GFON/60: Hemsky: 7.90, Penner: 7.13, Gagner: 6.93, Pisani: 6.47, Horcoff: 5.43, Glencross: 5.23, Moreau: 5.15, Torres: 4.99, Reasoner: 3.77, Cogliano: 3.60, Nilsson: 3.42, Sanderson: 2.81

GAON/60: Moreau, Sanderson, Reasoner, Glencross, Pisani: 0, Torres: 0.71, Horcoff: 0.86, Cogliano: 1.08, Penner: 1.22, Nilsson: 1.52, Hemsky: 1.54, Gagner: 1.66

+/- ON/60: Pisani: 6.47, Hemsky: 6.37, Penner: 5.91, Gagner: 5.27, Glencross: 5.23, Moreau: 5.15, Horcoff: 4.57, Torres: 4.28, Reasoner: 3.77, Sanderson: 2.81, Cogliano: 2.52, Nilsson: 1.90

Conclusions:

Forwards with nice numbers in most categories include Hemsky, Penner, Pisani and Gagner. Then there's a clear dropoff to Horcoff, with the grinders (Moreau/Torres/Reasoner) behind him. The bottom of the list consists of Sanderson, Nilsson and Cogliano. Based on all the data here, I'd suggest Hemsky/Gagner/Penner as Unit #1 and Horcoff/Pisani with Nilsson as Unit #2. Nilsson's numbers look really bad, but I can't force myself to substitute Moreau or Torres for him.

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Comments

Grebeshkov and Souray may have had their rates suffer if they had played more minutes.

Grebeshkov average half the time per game on the powerplay point than Pitkanen, for example. While Souray missed more than 2/3 of the season.

Had they logged minutes equivalent of Stoll or Pitkanen, in all likelihood, the massive increase in time would have driven down their averages.

by slipper on Apr 13, 2008 10:41 PM MDT reply actions

I suppose that makes sense. A limited sample size can make numbers that appear contradictory appear.

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 13, 2008 11:56 PM MDT reply actions

Any study of powerplay production from the point men is by definition a case of small number statistics when it comes to the Oilers. :( Stoll had pretty decent numbers back there, but for the pure defencemen pickings were slim. Only four played so much as half a minute per game on the PP:

Defenceman: PPP/PP+
--------------------
Pitkanen: 9 / 22
Gilbert: 9 / 16
Grebeshkov: 3 / 16
Souray: 3 / 11

(I assume slight differences between BtN and NHL.com are due to the latter including 5v3 goals)

Both Gilbert and Grebeshkov were on for 16 PPG, often together I suspect as both were second-unit guys; yet Gilbert got triple the points. It's certainly odd to see Grebs, or anybody on the PP, involved in under 20% of the scoring plays while he's out there. It's probably not sustainable. Whether increased ice time would result in his PP+/60 going down, his point production going up, or both, I don't feel qualified to say. I do think Grebehkov's strength is in gaining the zone and he's still finding his sea legs as a poacher, whereas Gilbert excels in that role. But there's more to like than dislike in Grebeshkov's numbers; as long as the unit is successful do we really care who scores the points?

by Bruce on Apr 15, 2008 2:48 AM MDT reply actions

//there's more to like than dislike in Grebeshkov's numbers; as long as the unit is successful do we really care who scores the points?//

Sounds good to me.

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 15, 2008 6:16 PM MDT reply actions

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	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
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