If I Were Kevin Lowe...

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 20, 2008 10:00 AM MDT

... I would be the GM of the Oilers! More specifically, I'd like to look at the roster this morning and decide what I'm going to do moving forward. This seems like a pivotal summer for the Oilers moving forward, so with that in mind I'm looking for progress but I'm not looking to ice a contender at this point, because I don't think the core of the team is ready for that yet. So, here goes, starting in net.

Goal: Mathieu Garon (1.1M), Dwayne Roloson, (3.67M) Total= 4.67M

At this point it might be nice to trade Roloson. One possibility I'd consider would be to Ottawa in exchange for Ray Emery + a draft pick. Another possibility I'd consider is to Tampa Bay, for Marc Denis and a more decent draft pick, with the understanding that Denis gets buried in the minors, and I sign a veteran 1B goaltender (Huet, Ellis, Conklin, Auld, etc.) for approx. 2M. There's a nice goalie crop this UFA period, and there's more bodies than there are spaces. Failing to find a trade to my liking, I keep Roli until at least the trade deadline. I'm looking to improve my team by getting a decent asset in return, not trading just for the sake of dumping an expensive goaltender. It doesn't hurt Garon at all to have a veteran presence behind him who can step in if needed.

Defense: Souray (5.4M), Gilbert (4M), Staios (2.7M), Grebeshkov (1.5M), Greene (1.15M), Smid (.886M), Pitkanen (RFA approx=[4.5M]) Total= 20.14M

I'm happy with this group, assuming that Pitkanen is signable. The UFA defenseman crop is weak this season, although there's a plethora of veteran 5/6 guys who'd fit in nicely here. If I were looking to ice a better team I'd be trading one of the young fellows and signing a vet, but since we're more worried about continued development, I think the youth gets one more season. Try and sneak Roy to the minors, and resign Rourke for depth.

First Line: Penner (4.25M), Horcoff (3.6M), Hemsky (4.1M) Total= 11.95M

I like this line. I also want Horcoff extended.

Second Line: Torres (2.25M), Gagner (1.625M), Nilsson (1.83M) Total = 5.71M

I don't want Cogliano on the second line, given that I feel he's going to take a step back (see SH% post, below). Torres will improve (see SH% post again), and Gagner and Nilsson are both capable enough secondary scorers at this point in their careers.

Third Line: Moreau (2M), Cogliano (1.133M), Pisani (2.5M) Total = 5.63M

Cogs is ready for third line pivot duty, if he's flanked by reliable veterans like Moreau and Pisani.

Fourth Line: Glencross (UFA, approx=[1.5M]), Stoll (RFA, approx=[2.3M]), Brodziak .497M Total=4.3M

Stoll's trade value right now is at an all-time low. Give him another season, and if things work out, trade him (at the deadline, perhaps?) Brodziak and Glencross are excellent 4th liners and everyone on this line can step up in the event of injury.

Extras: Pouliot (RFA, approx=[1M]), Stortini .5M Total= 1.5M

Final Dollars Spent = 53.9 Million

There it is. That's a fairly veteran roster with depth and no new rookies that should be able to handle injuries/regression without much difficulty, and all under next year's projected salary cap. I let Reasoner walk as a UFA, and didn't trade any roster players, with the possible exception of Roloson. Also, as there are no new rookies, I obviously traded Robbie Schremp.

Tweet Comment 3 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I agree that I don't expect much change from this year to next. And IMO thats a good thing.

I will disagree on Cogliano. He was a decent-good goal scorer in college and has scored at every level he's played at. Your right his sh% can not maintain what it has. What we will see is a lot more shots from him and similar to slightly better goal production, which would bring his number down to normal.

Cogliano was 11th on the Oil with 98 shots and I think you could see that number go up by as much as 50%

by Backhand on Apr 20, 2008 3:19 PM MDT reply actions

QUOTE: "I sign a veteran 1B goaltender (Huet, Ellis, Conklin, Auld, etc.) for approx. 2M."

If you can sign Huet, Ellis or Conklin for 2M, I'll buy you supper at Uptown, John. I can see Auldy going for 2m or maybe even a little less, but....

Huet - Fantastic record with Montreal, and helped carry Washington into the postseason when they were nearly down and out. He will get well over 2m, I'd guess around 4M, maybe a little more. Isn't 100% proven but shouldn't matter.

Ellis - Another goalie taking a team to the post season. Great numbers and will also get around 3-4M.

Conklin - I'd imagine he wants a starting job somewhere after his freakishly good run... in any case, he'll likely get an offer for more than 2M as well.

Auldy I can see going for around 2 million, however, if you don't mind him chopping time with Garon.

I see where you are going with your numbers, considering the goalie market last year was flatter than Paris Hilton, but Huet and Ellis should be a lock for more than 2 mil, Conklin you might snag if you are lucky, and Auldy probably won't make more than 2M next year.

You might be able to swing a Roloson deal with the Leafs if they dump Raycroft as expected. Mark my words, nothing will shine brighter than a Leafs draft pick in Kevin's pocket at the end of next season.

by Cams Habs on Apr 21, 2008 12:18 PM MDT reply actions

//I see where you are going with your numbers, considering the goalie market last year was flatter than Paris Hilton//

Pretty much the same this year- most teams have an established starter, and some of these guys will have to settle for a backup role. As it happens, Auld was the guy I had in mind, but if one of the other guys becomes available at a reduced rate I'd snag him.

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 21, 2008 5:44 PM MDT reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Oilers Schedule

Last 5 Games

@ Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	Sat 04/07	L 0 - 3
Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Thu 04/05	OT - L 2 - 3
@ Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Mon 04/02	L 0 - 2
@ Anaheim Anaheim Calling	Sun 04/01	W 2 - 1
Los Angeles Jewels From The Crown	Fri 03/30	L 1 - 4

Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings (27-11, .711)
St. Louis Blues (24-10, .706)
Vancouver Canucks (22-10, .688)
Los Angeles Kings (18-11, .621)
San Jose Sharks (18-13, .581)
Phoenix Coyotes (20-15, .571)
Nashville Predators (18-14, .563)
Chicago Blackhawks (21-19, .525)
Colorado Avalanche (16-19, .457)
Dallas Stars (18-22, .450)
Anaheim Ducks (14-19, .424)
Edmonton Oilers (18-25, .419)
Calgary Flames (13-21, .382)
Columbus Blue Jackets (14-31, .311)
Minnesota Wild (8-22,.267)

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh Penguins (31-13, .711)
Boston Bruins (27-11, .711)
New York Rangers (25-16, .610)
Philadelphia Flyers (21-17, .553)
New Jersey Devils (18-16, .529)
Ottawa Senators (19-17, .528)
Washington Capitals (20-19, .513)
Montreal Canadiens (16-19, .457)
Winnipeg Jets (15-19, .441)
Buffalo Sabres (14-18, .438)
Carolina Hurricanes (13-17, .433)
Florida Panthers (14-19, .424)
Toronto Maple Leafs (17-24, .415)
New York Islanders (8-23, .258)
Tampa Bay Lightning (10-30, .250)

Division Standings

Central (79-58, .577)
Atlantic (68-50, .576)
Pacific (62-54, .534)
Northeast (69-65, .515)
Northwest (49-69, .415)
Southeast (51-81, .386)

Network Bar

The Copper & Blue -

An Edmonton Oilers Fan Site - poise of analysis and discussion