Against my better judgement I read most of what Edmonton's main stream media writes about the Oilers. I don't agree with most, rarely any, of what the people paid to report on the team have to say since it tends to do nothing more than advance the Oilers message without questioning anything. But I read it all the same. What can I say, I'm a glutton for punishment, something you may have already figured out from the fact that I not only pay for season tickets but also continue to attend the games.

Now under normal circumstances when I disagree with something written by the MSM media I will respond by mocking the story on Twitter because it's a simple way to vent my frustration, allowing me to get on with my day. Such was the case when I read John MacKinnon's most recent story on the Oilers stressing that Steve Tambellini needs to stay the course with the rebuild. But even after having chirped the story on Twitter I didn't feel any better because this story was, somehow, worse than most. Given that remarkable accomplishment I felt that the story needed closer examination.

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Jérémie Blain has been a mainstay in the mediocre middle of our Top 25 for a while, but that mediocrity has generally been on an upward trajectory. Right after being drafted, we slotted him in at #27, but he quickly rose to #25 and then up to #19 this summer. With the winter edition of the Top 25, the list of players available is usually pretty similar to the list that was available in the summer - no new players have been drafted, and there aren't usually many trades before the start of February, so any change in a player's ranking is usually based on his performance over the last half-season. So what's gone wrong for Blain?

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Earlier this season, I introduced the Clear Victory Standings, which appear on the right-hand sidebar of the blog. The concept is pretty simple. Because there's almost no correlation from season-to-season in a team's ability to win one-goal games, and because the official standings are such a mess thanks to the number of games that go into overtime, I find it helpful to look at how teams do in games decided by two or more (not including empty-net goals-for) to help suss out each team's true talent level.

Good teams do, of course, win their fair share of one-goal games, but those teams that win a disproportionate number of games by a single goal are often headed for a fall. After the jump, we'll take a brief look at how teams have done so far in games decided by two goals or more, and how each division has done against the others.

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With a little over two months left in the season it's become quite clear that the Oilers will finish the year, just like they have the last two, in a lottery position. This result is not what Oilers general manager Steve Tambellini expected and it's not what a lot of the fans were anticipating. Despite the season being a failure by this measure the media is telling fans that the Oilers need to stay the course, that Tambellini has done a good job and as a result will likely be rewarded with a new contract in the near future.

The main reason being given for allowing Tambellini to continue in his efforts to rebuild the Oilers is that there has been progress made this season even if it isn't showing up in the standings. The powerplay is better. The penalty kill is better. The goal differential is better. These are things I've been told by many fans on Twitter and most of the recent articles written about Tambellini and/or head coach Tom Renney say the same thing.

But are the Oilers really improved in these areas or is there something else driving the numbers? Derek has already looked at the Oilers powerplay results and while the Oilers have certainly improved with the man advantage this season, the results are likely unsustainable. That's not a good sign for progress. After the jump I'll look at the progress the Oilers have made when killing a penalty and when they're playing at even strength and what has been the biggest contributing factor.

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To say there were low expectations when the Edmonton Oilers selected Martin Gernat in last year's Entry Draft would be to suggest there were expectations at all. Hoping for a miracle? Always. But actual expectations of an NHL-calibre player being plucked from such a depth? Unlikely.

"Who's he?" was the question most were scrambling to answer when the off-the-board selection was announced. Immediately, comparisons were cast to Martin Marincin, a highly-touted second rounder from one year previously, with whom Gernat shares a common given name (Martin), heritage (Slovak), towering height (6'5), and musculature (none).

Gernat was also destined to follow Marincin's path in another important way, as he declared his interest to come to North America and thus became a "player of interest" for the CHL's import draft, held the week after the NHL's Entry Draft. While Gernat didn't quite have the chops to go #1 overall in that draft, as Marincin had (to Prince George) one year previous, it quickly became clear that the Oilers had plans for him. Their junior affiliate, the Edmonton Oil Kings, traded up in that import draft, clearing out Marek Hrbas to the Kamloops Blazers for the privilege. It was a very goal-specific deal: not only did Edmonton move up a few spots to improve their odds, they opened up a spot for both another import and another defenceman on their roster. Local observers immediately speculated that the Oil Kings had targeted Gernat, a prediction that played out soon thereafter. Gernat joined Kristians Pelss, another Oilers late-round selection from a hockey nation with a weak development record, as the Oil Kings' two eligible imports. It's a clever strategy that enables the organization to take full advantage of its WHL connections.

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Much has already been made of the rumours that Steve Tambellini is in talks with the Oilers for a contract extension. The architect of the current Oilers, according to some, should be able to see his rebuild through to the very end.

I disagree. I disagree so strongly that if such a move were to be made, I’d give up on the team that I’ve loved as long as I can remember. It’s a team that’s been as big a part of my life as anything outside of school, work or family. A team so much a part of me that one of my earliest childhood memories is looking through the sports sections for the Oilers score when I could barely read.

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